More EURO 2008 thoughts

So much has happened since my last entry that I'm not sure where to start even.

Well as I predicted in my last entry Russia beat Holland, and then what I unfortunately didn't make an entry about, but which I also predicted, Spain then beat Russia.
Both of these games were really good examples of how it's not only in boxing but very often in football as well, that styles make fights. A great example of it and one of my favorite figths right there^^

But I already went through in detail why I thought Holland didn't match up well with Russia and as far as the Spain-Russia match was concerned it's even more simple.
Russia and Spain basically share the same major strenghts but Spain just does everyone of those a little better and in such cases where you have no unique strenght, like for an example a great defensive organizaion, to counter the opponent's strenghts, you just share strongpoints but the opponent's are even stronger, things can very easily turn one sided.
Russia at this point just does not have the defensive quality or experience for that matter to resist a team with as much quality possession as Spain.
One thing Holland did do well against Russia was actually suprisingly keeping the majority of possession against them and by doing that in many ways delayed the inevitable but as they did so they sacrificed their normal high tempo resulting in not really troubling the normaly vulnerable Russian defence to the extent it was needed, except for on set pieces.
A lot of the time, unlike with Spain, the dutch possession wasn't high quality but really more geared towards somewhat spoiling the Russian high quality. Slowing them down.

Spain tonight of course was the exact opposite and when the deadly duo upfront was dissolved because of a David Villa injury, what replaced it when Fabregas entered was a midfield probably more capable than any other of very high quality possession.
I must admit the prospects of seeing Fabregas, Iniesta and Xavi work their passing magic together had me drooling and no they did not disappoint.
The only negative would have been if they had gone stale and settled for just passing the ball around but both Silva and especially Iniesta stepped up their game and provided plenty of deep runs forward to support Torres. Xavi of course had already done so with the goal.
Fabregas was everywhere and behind them, in front of a solid defence, Marcus Senna had yet another virtually perfect game.
There was just no way that Russia would resist this kind of quality.
In many ways their own fluid passing medicine shoved right down their collective throat.
And they couldn't. Just like in the first game, easy win for Spain.

But credit to Russia for a great tournament.
The Holland match was great drama and the football throughout a joy to watch.
Ukranian Lobanovsky who fathered the Soviet total football would have been proud.
This team was right in his spirit.



Then there is the other half of the draw. By the way I'm saving an entry on the Italian failure against Spain and Marcello Lippi returning as the coach for later.
But what can you even say about Turkey?
It seems forever ago that I wrote that they just could not keep escaping jail, yet this was exactly what they did against Croatia only to ironically have Germany pull a similar trick on them in what was yet another crazy drama filled match.
Not made any better by the tv signal going out everywhere.

Now I don't know if the German team had a blackout in this game but they really did suck in many ways.
The pressure 4-4-2 was once again dropped and it seemed the balance was nowhere to be found.
Ballack played sort of a free role behind Klose and in front of the two central midfielders but when he does that you sort of only get half of what he is so good at.
You take a lot of the steel out and you take a lot of the hard work out.
One thing was for sure. Even with a well populated midfield Germany was still getting run over the majority of the game. Definitely not something you've seen a lot in recent years.
Credit to Turkey who probably played their best game by far in the tournament and I thought especially Aurelio, Turkey's Senna, and the right sided fullback Sabri played great.
Sabri was just dynamite throughout, a cannonball, and actually outplayed probably the best leftback in the world Philipp Lahm, for most of the game.
Then Lahm, after being thoroughly owned when Turkey equalized, bouncing right back and in spectacular fashion scoring the winner was quite simply the stuff of legends.


Hopefully I won't be too lazy to write a finals preview where I think I'll salute the missing in action German 4-4-2, its Italian connections and why I have feeling it will be desperately needed in a final that before the tournament and following the Portugal game, I thought they would win, but now I'm not so sure of.

Holland - Russia preview and predictions

Holland have played the best so far.

Holland have the best allround midfield in the competion.

Russia will beat Holland.


WAT?



Playing Russia will be a shock almost and so completely different from the matches they've played so far. What worked so brilliantly for Holland against teams like Italy and France won't work as well against Russia.
Only Spain pass the ball around better than Russia and I'm not sure how well Holland can react to that.

In some ways it feels strange writing this because of the praise I placed upon them after they destroyed Italy and France.
I fully stand by that I think they have the best allround midfield in the competition.
But this is just one of those rare cases where allround talent comes short.
The dutch midfield have very good defensive attributes and they have very good attacking attributes, but the problem is that against an opponent as unique as this one, one of those needs to be at an even higher level, and then it wouldn't even hurt their chances much if the other half was a level below.

Russia are so good with the ball,that I feel that having the on paper perfect balance just puts you in danger. There is nothing that can truly match Russia's passing onslaught.

Not an even BETTER passing game like Spain had and not great defensive organization like say Italy from the World Cup.
One of those are what can gain an edge against Russia and the Dutch for all their overall quality have neither.

I think to gain a significant edge Van Basten has to do something very drastic yet for a Dutch side also very natural.

Play 4-3-3

The alternative is creating a strictly counter attacking scheme which they might be forced to do anyway depending on how the game develops, but since they without a doubt are a naturally attacking team, I don't think the edge they would gain by that is as solid as if they shifted their balance even further forward.

Again 4-3-3

Rinus Michel are you diggin this?

I touched upon this in the "Holland march on" entry when I wrote in great detail about their midfield and finding room for players such as Robben and Van Persie, but I didn't really realise at the time that what I was basically suggesting was a great comeback for the classic dutch 4-3-3.
I think it would match up very well against Russia, and probably give them similar control to what Spain had when they beat Russia. When Russia are not in control using their fluid passing and triangle combinations, historically they collapse.
As we saw against Spain not even Hiddink has been able to change that.


In many ways what I suggest is something that's so opposite of everything that appears on the surface yet it is so logical and makes perfect sense. Especially for a Dutch team.
Go back to the 4-3-3 and everything will be fine. Fight fire with fire.

In this article http://blogs.guardian.co.uk/sport/2008/06/20/hiddink_rekindles_the_dormant.html by the Guardian's Jonathan Wilson he writes about among other things Russia's history with "total football" and remember, how did Holland beat Russian total football in a big match the last time?
The 1988 final facing a great Soviet team playing very similar to what we're seeing now. with breathtaking passing and control.
They fought fire with fire and their even better individual players, including of course Van Basten, came through.

That's similar to now as well. There is no doubt overall that Holland have better players but without shifting their balance, preferable forward beating Russia at their own game, there is a good chance that won't come through. It will be a game playing to the Russian's strenghts and not the Dutch.
The same would probably have been the case in 1988 if Holland had gone for the allround balance they're going for now, instead of the 4-3-3 eventually overwhelming Russia.

Now It's hard to see Van Basten actually do this. Changing back to their good old 4-3-3 I just think will feel like taking a step back for him and something that could ruin all the progress he is seeing. That we're all seeing.
After all he is the one who has stood firm and ignored all the usual cries for it to be brought back, and is now finally showing that Holland can succeed without it.

My theory is just that this game is so completely different from any of the group matches that what may have been working so perfectly in those games might not now, and in this particualar game it's the 4-3-3 that would work the best.

Of course with these kinds of bold predictions I have to throw in a little disclaimer.
Eventhough I do think Russia has the best chance to win, unless Van Basten pulls the 4-3-3 rabbit out of the hat, Holland are so good and have so many good players that they're by no means out of it.
And being very good in all areas obviously is never a bad thing. In this particular case you just might need to upgrade certain areas over others.

But point is that up front with the flawless execution so far, Holland can hurt any team and that of course includes Russia.
That's the luxury of having these great players.
Even if they're not able to enforce their strenghts on the opposition as a team, there is still enough talent to make the difference,(almost) on their own.

The quarterfinals are here

To follow up from the last entry, of course Germany DID rebound and put in a similar performance of fussball to what we saw when they hosted the World Cup.
Lots of pressure on the opponent. Especially in the beginning they overran Portugal and throughout the game it was evident just how much physically stronger Germany were on almost every position. Portugal came back though and are just too good a side to keep down.
From the back four to the flexible attack up front they had been best balanced team so far of the tournament.
Unfortunately their goalkeeper Ricardo can single handedly shift however good that balance is, to something resembling disaster.
He is horrible on set pieces and Germany, the strongest team in the air, took full advantage.
He just does not commit himself. Not to getting in position to make a save and not to getting in position to go for the kick.
He always ends up somewhere in between positioning himself where he is completely useless.
That meant two german goals and a mountain to climb for Portugal.
It was never impossible though or seemed very unlikely.
Germany continued to have their fullbacks going forward while at the same time Portugal had their wings going very little backwards.
That meant great acres of space and lots of open play with many scoring chances for both teams.

Germany will be tough to beat. Their pressure is so hard to resist.
During the World Cup it took a masterful Italian performance to do it and the question is if any team is capable of something similar this time around.
Holland would be my best guess but them going to the final is of course far from given.
In fact I think Russia will have a great chance of knocking them out. But more on that later.
Spain with their possesion football, unless it's taken to a new level by Fabregas, I think would be underdogs too, though because of the duo up front can never be counted out.
That's the difference of Spain this year and recent years.
A truly deadly duo that even when they're being shut down physically or tactically by another team, will still be dangerous, virtually on their own, giving them a realistic winning chance.

It just has to be noted though that Germany overcame, or resisted if you will, a team playing better possesion football than Spain are right now when they beat Argentina in the World Cup.
For Spain to reach Argentina level and really trouble Germany, Fabregas just has to play.
Xavi has been a great playmaker for many years and is still one of the best, there aren't that many anyway, but for almost a decade now he has had the chance to produce the magic for Spain and with absolutely nothing to show for it.
At this point in their respective careers, Fabregas does every single thing I can possibly think of a little better than Xavi.

If "old man Aragones" wants to break the curse, Fabregas needs to play.

Now as always I support Italy and I won't mind at all not seeing Fabregas in what will be an epic match but it does hurt a little to see a player who I think is probably top 5 in the world sitting on the bench.
If Italy goes out, it's Spain who I'll be rooting for, and seeing them reduce their chances of FINALLY winning a trophy is just heartbreaking.

With regards to the Croatia - Turkey match I don't really have much to add other than what I already touched upon in the previous entries.
I think Turkey have overachieved and even if Bilic puts in the midfield he did against Austria, I still think there is a chance Croatia can control them.
It will just be more difficult and give Turkey yet another chance of escaping jail.
However if Croatia play like they did against Germany, they SHOULD win. It's that simple.

The two other games are extremely interesting and I look immensely forward to both.

Spain vs Italy is just a classic rivalry and the atmosphere will resemble life and death.
I think it will be a close game and I doubt there will be more than a couple of goals scored.
0-0 1-0 1-1 or 2-0 with a late goal seems like the most likely scenarios.
I don't even know the point of predicting a winner. It's like 51-49 to either one of the sides.
It's different styles clashing and whoever can execute theirs the better will win.
Historically that's been Italy but with all the different intangibles for this one, who knows?
I just know I'll be watching and maybe write a more detailed preview in an upcoming entry.

The other match however I will write about for sure.
Probably in the next entry where I'll outline my bold prediction of a Russian victory.
Have I lost my mind? Some seem to think so but if Russia don't win I'll just have to pay since I've convinced myself so badly that a good bet on the Russian victory just could not be resisted.
It seems like such great value, for reasons coming up in the next entry, so all I can say is GO RUSSIA!!!!!!!!

In honour of probably my favorite Russian player of all time, Aleksandr Zavarov



revenge 1988 and win me some moneyz while you do it!